A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
